Cosplay Cabinet, Real Consequences

David (00:00) This week we're talking about a fantasy a lot of people keep trying to live. I'll be the exception. take the job. I'll get closer to power. I'll pull it off and I won't be the one who gets tossed over the board. So we talked about the cabinet as cosplay economy, where loyalty is the qualification, and competence the liability. And then we pivot to Iran and the Strait of the part everyone's skipping is the second and third order of facts. You don't get clean wins. get consequences. This is Shrink the Nation. Let's go. David (01:10) Alright, I'm David. 20 years in the military have board certified psychiatrist and today I have just the most a giantist mug of Coffee that says false on one side and has Dwight Schrute's Dunder Mifflin Credentials on the other but I'm holding it so that Rob you can see the false whenever I take a sip and Whenever you talk Rob (01:31) Yeah, for the audience, David's a naysayer that always tells me I'm wrong. now he's giving me visual signals. David (01:37) Last week, last week you were telling me to shut the fuck which I did, which I did. Rob (01:41) well, you should. I'm going to go back to a quote from the incredible movie, Wedding Crashers. Shut your mouth when you're talking to me. At any rate, I'm Rob. I've got an ungodly number of years in the military and an ungodly number of years in psychiatry. Long time. Let's get into this because we got some stuff to talk about. David (02:04) Yeah. as I was telling Rob before we started this, I'm just genuinely perplexed, a touch intrigued and overall just interested the first topic we're going to talk about, which is the recent news that beloved, Attorney General Van Bondy has been go. After a brief cry that I had reading the news, I've now gathered myself And here we sit. So what the fuck, Robbie? What? Rob (02:34) So my gut instinct on this one was, how do those who serve him see this coming? That was my gut instinct. As I've thought about it, they do see it coming. They just think they're the exception to the rule. They think that they're going to have proximity to power. They're going to aggrandize themselves and they're going to accomplish something after. I don't think there's probably a single secretary in his cabinet that doesn't have in the back of their mind, I could be the president. And that's just not how it works. And anyone who's been keeping track, mean, Trump won versus Trump 2.0. You are discarded quickly. No one one actually thrives. You know, the only one that thrives is who's the governor now? Hucklebee. David (03:29) Sarah Huckabee Sanders. It's a right, I believe. Yeah. Rob (03:33) That's it. Yeah. I think she's the only one that has survived the onslaught. The rest of them get relegated to nothingness. They attach themselves, they as as humanly possible to the whims and desires of the president. then they get And particularly the Department of Justice, Bill Barr last time, he had a little more chutzpah. He had a little more terms of ethics and he tried, but he still made some choices that have relegated him to the nether regions. When's the last time you saw an interview with Bill Barr? Come on. David (04:13) haven't. mean, the last time I heard his name is when said it, talking about The Mueller report. That's the last time I've even thought about Bill Barr. And then before that, I remember there's two, I think, major things I want to look. unpack what you're saying. One is that you are quickly discarded If your loyalty and fealty to him is not deemed adequate, will be just relegated Rob (04:40) Her loyalty was unquestionable. you go back to she was the Trumpiest of She made a fool of didn't look serious, she looked David (04:48) Yes. Rob (04:54) she did what she thought was what he would like. David (04:54) But that's. that's the other piece. you have these, two silos that you're trying to be One is unfettered loyalty and fealty to Donald Trump. But the other one, this is subtle because we don't see a lot of people trying to fit into the silo, but it is separate. is competent in your role. and that's the conflict that you find yourself in when you are appointed to anything by Donald Trump is that you need to maintain a picture of loyalty and fealty to the King himself. But you also must be competent enough not to embarrass him. through your actions. And those are just diametric opposites sometimes like they're so different. And what that gets you is very likely to be dropped by him, which then runs into the second piece, which is once you've been dropped Now, you are legal risk for all of the actions that you took whilst trying to show loyalty and your fealty. Rob (06:09) Yeah, no, absolutely. from a psychological standpoint, he offloads so much of the responsibility to others. He puts pressure on them. end up acting and they become the responsible parties. in this case, mean, you why was she fired? Well, she was fired because she mishandled the Epstein files. Why did she mishandle the Epstein files? Well, because during the election, signaled that the Epstein files were a thing I'm going to get in there and I'm going to release all the Epstein files. That was part of his election promise. And, you know, he ended up selecting her because had a high reward wanted the status. She wanted the proximity to power perceived her as having flexible enough ethics She ended up having a personal loyalty over the institutional loyalty have had leaders, we've secretaries of the president have had a greater institutional loyalty, a sense that... I have to follow the rules that are established by the United States for the good of the United States more than I have to follow the president. And they balance that. I mean, it's never easy. It's never a simple are human relationships at play. But in this case, she came into office and I actually, I kind of feel for as much as her performances Congress have, stunned me. I don't know if I've ever seen anyone more aggressive with Congress. It's like they ask her a specific question and she's like, and you suck and I'll tell you why you suck. she never answers the questions. That's fascinating to me. but. she's put in this position because the onus was put over onto her. it was an impossible And what's fascinating is that this individual, Donald Trump, and I'm speaking as a, ⁓ citizen of the United States, with, you know, full first amendment rights here. Donald Trump put this task onto her, which was impossible. And now he's punishing her for an impossible task. And not only does it lack of a two way, loyalty loyalty is a one way thing for him. It's, you have to be loyal to me. I do not have to be loyal to you. is that based part of my election platform on Epstein files. I then put this person into place. I selected them personally. I said, this is the right person for this job. took the cue. All right, the Epstein this is it. This is what we're gonna focus on. And now she's being punished for it. Now, I'll be the first to say, think she mismanaged that. think she let power get to her had a platform and because she had that platform, some things she's the one, it's on my desk. I have the Epstein list right here. Whether she did or not, I don't know. She also said there were 700 hours of child porn videos that she had. Maybe she does, I don't know. Who knows what she likes to do in her free time? I don't know. David (09:26) I sort of got stuck on the feel bad for. harking back to a movie from 1995 called Lord of Illusions. And there's a, it's a, it's just kind of new and more. Rob (09:35) God, you're going deep. David (09:39) horror movie and I'm not a big horror movie fan but I remember watching this with my friends when I was a teenager and there's this scene where the leader of this cult, mean he's a demon of some sort but begins to sacrifice all of his followers they're praying to him or what not. Rob (09:48) God, I was a full-fledged adult in the 90s. David (09:59) He all weak. as they're being sucked into the ground, they're like, fuck And that's all I can think of every time another one bites the dust with Donald Trump, which, by the way, is something that I wish we could play. I just I don't I don't it's adult. Rob (10:15) just say we're thinking of Freddie Mercury right now. David (10:18) Yeah, when an adult human being, sees opportunity in questionable place, they sense power and they convince themselves that they're going to rise above it. I struggle to feel bad for him because it's not even like the first presidency, you know, I would say in the first year of his first presidency, the people who got fired immediately, those people probably had no idea what was coming, there was no indication that he would be running his administration in such a way that he would just fire people on a whim. Rob (10:54) there was the myth of normalcy in that first actually did try to hire people, bring people in that were competent. David (10:59) Yeah. then each subsequent round of person that came in became more and more questionable in their ethics. because the job clearly required it. And as you watch the dominoes fall before you, you say, what can I do to not be a domino that falls? Well, this time around. don't feel as bad for people who, if you clearly just by looking around you, and I'll tell anybody this, if you find yourself in a crowd you are in the same direction, up, cheering, whatnot, if you start to look around and read signs in that crowd that make you go, hmm, I wonder if I should be in this crowd. The answer is probably no, you shouldn't because you are now a part of this crowd. So I can only imagine what the cabinet members as they were being selected. And I think we all kind of remember who he was putting forth. Once you're part of that crowd now and you have to wonder, I would say if I were one of the people he was selecting to be a secretary of anything, I probably would have looked the Pam Bondi, the Kristi Noem, the Pete Hegsith, and I would have said, this guy is not planning on building a superstar group. And by my selection of that means that I am also not a superstar. And I know that takes a lot of insight, but these are supposed to be adults who are relatively intelligent. One would for them to not recognize, the first cabinet meeting as you're sitting there. Cupping his proverbial balls Rob (12:24) does. David (12:37) them and telling them are. I think that would have been the first time that if you had missed in the hearings typical cabinet secretary get 98 votes, 96 votes the Senate confirmation process and you're getting 53 50 votes and then Rob (12:57) Yeah. David (12:59) You know, JD Vance coming in and, you know, doing his, I dream of Jeannie, guy liner, blinking to make it so the theatrics of it, are they not gonna bring a person in? If you missed it then, that you were clearly not qualified for this job, and you're only being brought in here to tell the president how nice his penis is, then That's kind of on you at that Rob (13:23) your balls smell hardwood, bourbon, and lavender. David (13:28) I bet they why are they, why, why are your balls such a different color from your face, sir? Why are they such a different color? Rob (13:29) I bet they don't. I don't think they do. They're... David (13:39) Everyone I want everyone right now to imagine what Donald Trump's Rob (13:42) No, I don't want them. I don't want them to. No, no, no, stop. Stop right now. David (13:46) Just, and he's 79, he's 79. They're probably about halfway to the floor right now. Like they're probably just dangling there. Donald the YMCA. Cause you know, he'd be that guy, the naked, wet guy. Naked and like he just took a shower, but his hair's not wet, but he's just dripping. Rob (13:52) Yeah, they're at least close to his knees. He's that guy. He's that guy that stands there naked for no good reason. Wanting to have a conversation with you. Just talking, totally naked. David (14:12) Just talk, no, talking at you, not talking to you, not a conversation, a one way conversation that just doesn't end. Doesn't matter who's in there where you just walk through. He's got one foot up on a bench, totally nude. Testicles are just almost touching the bench themselves. Tripping wet, tripping wet. And he's telling you whatever's theory he's. Rob (14:15) ⁓ yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely. Yeah, what you doing there, buddy? Yeah. Yeah. David (14:38) walk in and he's eating the dogs. Rob (14:42) There's Haitians, my God, in Youngstown, Ohio. They're eating the dogs. eating. Yeah. David (14:47) They're eating the dogs. I want to know though, and just because you brought it up, but at what point, Robbie, and at what point was Youngstown ever a nice town? Rob (14:56) Never. mean, gonna David (14:57) I, was as I recall from many, many, many years ago was like the meth capital before meth was really even all that popular in Ohio. It was like the meth capital of Ohio when opiates were running wild. Rob (15:11) hey hey they're trendsetters they're trendsetters they yeah they're ahead of the curve yeah Youngstown was never never a destination point however David (15:22) Man, our tens of listeners from Youngstown are gonna be furious at us. Rob (15:26) We don't have tens of listeners from Youngstown. We might have a listener, maybe, maybe. And I'm not demeaning Youngstown, but yeah, great. Go ahead and take your meth hit and then listen to me. And then brush your teeth for Christ's sake because meth's awful for your dental health. David (15:32) just ruined this morning's math. Rob (15:41) Haitians don't eat dogs, David. That's not a thing. David (15:44) No, they eat cats. Rob (15:46) They don't eat cats either. They don't hate Haitians. It's not a cultural thing. I don't understand. David (15:49) ⁓ I know I feel like you just, you know, you just trolling the president. mean, the president said so it's gotta be true. Rob (15:57) Yeah, I'm trolling. So let's go backwards. Let's go backwards to Pam Bondi and the folks who accept jobs that they're not qualified for. we're seeing psychologically is enhancement bias. David (15:59) Is it? Yeah. Rob (16:12) It's a ridiculous level of If someone offers me a job, like if someone came to me today and said, I want you to be the, director of the VA or the my gut level instinct response would be, not qualified for that. And those who don't David (16:22) Secretary of Defense. Rob (16:31) actually think through that. Don't come up with this. Like our esteemed Department of Defense. alias Department of War leader has zero big goose egg, zero, zero qualifications to be in that job. There's not a single one. I wrote a book about how woke policies are affecting the military. was a less than Wildly successful junior officer. I never commanded a unit I didn't command a company much less a battalion much less a brigade much less a division much less The entire Department of Defense. So this is an unqualified individual Who accepted a job? For what? What did he think? And then he came in with the energy of a junior officer and the focuses of a junior officer. So when you're a junior officer, you have very little power, you have very little authority. You're in charge of the fitness of the unit. And what did this guy do? He came in and focused on fitness. became his thing. And when you're a junior officer, you think being special forces dude cool. that's what wins they Folks, to our tens of listeners, logistics wins wars. Preparation wins wars, planning wins wars. not our special forces. It's not the average soldier. having six pack abs able a bunch of weight. That's not what wins wars. David (18:02) Jessica Foster. That's who wins wars. Rob (18:07) Jessica Foster in her mini skirt, uniform and her non-standard decorations. so. POTUS selects you, we've seen is you're not selected on the basis of qualification, you're selected on the basis of loyalty. And the sense that you're gonna do what I want you to do. And the folks that accept these jobs, are envisioning that they can go into that environment, they can somehow navigate the demands that are being placed on them. They can come out the other side and be candidate for the president of the United States or successful. And what we've seen is, no, that's not how it plays embarrassed, revealed for being incompetent and then you go into anonymity David (18:56) As you were talking, my mind started to wander as it frequently does. Not listening to you on 2.0 speed is brutal, Robbie, brutal. No, Rob (19:01) Of course it does. I know, I'm slow. It's my appellation. We're just slow talkers. David (19:10) but you brought up something that I thought actually Moved my brain in a direction. So you said when you were selected not selected based on competence, but based on loyalty and it occurred to me that it wouldn't be difficult to find people who were complimentary of Donald Trump to some degree and have some it was more of audition than Rather than looking at people for their abilities and their accolades in the fields, what was being looked at was their ability to look like they could do a job just visually. everybody in these positions is doing is cosplay. cosplay with the ability to go back and still be overly complimentary. It's not that they are in a job. They are in a role. They are just up there acting without the benefit, of the knowledge that it takes. and the know how to actually accomplish the roles, functioning that I think it was by design. think Donald Trump wanted people who looked the role, which he's always been very much into appearances. it 20? Rob (20:23) idealize. David (20:26) Lester Holt was hosting a debate between Donald Hillary Clinton at the time. he said to him, what did you mean when you said, quote, she doesn't have a presidential look to which Donald Trump replied? I didn't say that to which Lester Holt then replied. You did say it. It's a quote. It's a quote. but he's, he's always been much more into the appearance of. Rob (20:43) Yes, you did. David (20:49) does somebody look like they can be in this role? ignored that largely, at least at the beginning of his first presidency, He actually, made a, a fair effort to put people in who could do the jobs. he just didn't like it when it turns out they could do the job. And part of their job was to do the job correctly. Rob (21:06) Tell him no. David (21:07) yeah, part of job is to say no. So instead, brought who have that it's reality TV. It's interesting is held to But not people that you would ever running anything that manages your life. Rob (21:17) Scary as hell to live. David (21:24) movie audition, a job interview. Rob (21:26) a narcissistic system dynamic. So first you idealize, then you use, then you devalue, and then you replace. if we were sitting in the office with a narcissist and we were engaged in psychotherapy, this is the dynamic that they would engage in in their life. would find a partner who they idealize. They are wonderful, perfect, look the way I want them to look. They have the credentials I want them to have. Then they pull them in use them for their own self aggrandizement, their own ego integrity. And then when turns out they're actual humans, bound by the same rules and laws. The rest of us are banned by which include ethics, morals, job requirements, all the things that get in the pretending that you're perfect. when you narcissist, become absolute failure. not that we disagree. It's not that we have a different perspective. It's not demands are different than mine. It is you are horrible. You are terrible. You're And then you replace. And that's what we're seeing. And what's fascinating to me is people keep putting their hat in, you know, yes, I'm next, I'll do this. And the only thing I can think of in looking at the group that ends up getting engaged is that they're equally narcissistic to the point that they think I'm going to be the exception to the. David (23:05) Pam Bondi at no she ever that strong loyalty to Donald the, issue at hand wasn't ability to stand there and. just piled praise upon do exactly what he was asking. was he was asking going to lead failure her part, which he cannot tolerate. isn't looking good for me. Her inability Epstein files go was ever in her control. Rob (23:32) No? David (23:35) Right? Like that was kind of the problem was inability to find credible evidence backing up his claims, which were her ability to. Rob (23:42) thinking of Bondi. David (23:44) make them go away and to still the narrative that he wanted without reality setting in, which is that his name is all over guy very publicly had a deep with Epstein. And so her ability simultaneously say, all the bad guys. not one of them. And in the absence of that, well, they don't, it's just not a problem anyway. bungled it, but she bungled it because he needed her to, which was a failure. different though. When you get to Kristi Noem, I think firing is interesting because she was from the perspective of running that agency. I believe she was running it exactly the way that Stephen Miller wanted her to, as far as the things that were being done. They were paramilitarizing CBP and ICE. were going after Now, were they going after violent, dangerous immigrants? No, but that was a manufactured from Donald Trump. campaign rhetoric. there's millions upon millions of violent, that wasn't real. made that up people, news splash. There aren't millions upon millions of violent immigrants in our country. There are some violent immigrants. some violent citizens, but there weren't millions upon millions of people that we were going to just kick out of the country. And the truth is, had there been, CBP and ICE would have already been trying to kick them out. kind of their whole MO is trying to track down. But as it turns out, Robbie, violent, dangerous criminals who are here illegally, kind of hard to find. Who is really easy to find are the people who are here illegally, who are just going about daily life trying to live the American dream, or the people who are trying to become legal citizens. They're really easy to find because they go to court. They do all the things that we're asking them to do, the hoops that we're having them jump through. And so those are targets for a massive operation. But that didn't seem to be the reason got fired. got her canned even her... perceived loyalty to him, I suppose. mean, she definitely kissed the ring and smooched the nutsack like anybody else, but... Rob (26:00) Lavender. David (26:01) Cedarwood and Sandalwood. But what got her into trouble was when questioned about her questionable spending, she blamed him. Now, I don't know if she had a conversation with Trump and said, I'm going to Rob (26:01) bourbon and David (26:17) do this and he thought it was an awesome idea or dismissed it, or if there was a conversation at all. But I think this is a miscalculation on her part I'm not on his cabinet, but if I wanted to remain on his cabinet, I would be very reluctant in the middle of a Senate. hearing to say his name anything but a wonderful positive way. if they said, did Donald Trump approve of you spending couple hundred million dollars on these advertisements that largely feature you speaking English to a group of people who presumably don't to get out of the country whilst riding a horse? My answer would be, Donald Trump has lovely set of testicles that just smell of lavender and sandalwood. And we all should appreciate that. That'd be the only acceptable answer for him. Because if you said, no, he approved it, whether he did or not, you just invoked his name a less than pleasant way. You're done. You're done. Rob (27:00) You're killing a David (27:18) Now, there was a bit of grand-disman on her part, Rob (27:21) Yeah. the two things. there's an offloading of irrational responsibility to accomplish something that is not legal, that is not ethical. So if you fail in accomplishing that, that's going to in dissatisfaction. The other thing that absolutely results in dissatisfaction is the sense that you're self aggrandizing. And that's where ultimately failed. She self aggrandized. She put herself on a horse she featured herself commercials. She was trying to increase her exposure. David (28:00) But she was doing that the whole time. See, that's where I don't, I just was cosplaying whatever the, I don't even know what it was, but she was doing it the whole time. She was wearing, she was putting on, yeah, and like holding guns and posing in front of people in, prisons. I mean, she was doing that the entire time. I don't think that's what pissed him off. I'm sure he loved the commercial with her. Rob (28:04) The whole time. I don't know, she's running around in body armor and... Yeah. David (28:24) standing there. Now I think when it got pointed out that she was, this might be other people working find reasons to get rid of her, but when it was pointed out that she was putting herself above him, hypothetically at least, through these things, I mean, was, was, thou shalt not. false idols, as she was herself up. Now, was that exactly what she was doing? Or was that any different than what she'd done? Because those weren't new commercials, those had come out months and months earlier. So it wasn't new. I think maybe somebody pointed that out to him. But where she really faltered NOT Rob (29:01) advertising on a news agency that he watches. David (29:04) No, because I think he would have loved, in fact, that was the reason that they put it on I don't think it was that she made the ad. everything she was doing everything that Hegseth was doing everything that Pambani was doing was they were again cause playing a role so that he could see they were doing it so that on tv he could turn it on and see that they were defending him that they were putting forth whatever he had and saying Justice Department was weaponized against their political enemies and we're gonna fix it and we're gonna make sure that doesn't happen again as they do that exact thing. gonna strengthen the military getting rid of all this DEI so all of the people who were in positions of authority who were probably making it quite. We're going to get rid of those people and put in people who have more fail-treated us. Definitely strengthening the military. when you had her cosplaying that role, she wasn't cosplaying the role to the American people. She was playing it to him. She wanted him to see that she was out there doing the things that he needed her to do or he wanted her to do. The issue wasn't that, I don't think. I don't think it was that she was doing that. I think the issue was that When was found that there was a questionable way that she went about doing that, and they brought it up in a negative context, she blamed him. the truth is, very realistically, he could have said, yep, that's fine, go for it, and all is well. Nobody would know. But the fact that she invoked his name, and blamed him, I think is what pissed him off. Because the cosplay thing wasn't new. I mean, she's been pretending to be a beautiful woman for a long time. Just like her husband. And nobody's questioned that. So. Rob (30:41) Ha ha ha! no, a lot of South Park has nailed it. David (30:47) Well... It's not a far reason he picked Rob (30:51) did look good in a pair of jeans. David (30:53) That was the reason he picked her to begin with. So I don't think yourself out there was what pissed him off as much as you don't name names. I've watched Goodfellas enough time to know, Robbie, that you keep your mouth shut. Rob (31:07) Yeah, so accepting a job is like assuming you are a favorite coffee cup and it turns out you're a solo That's how it plays out. David (31:15) Well, it means you're a solo cup who kind of looks like a coffee cup you just don't stand up to a lot of washes. Yeah. Rob (31:21) You're to discard. It's not about belief. The folks that go in there believers. looking for proximity to power, it distorts their judgment. So, hey, to Iran, because to talk about it. David (31:32) What are you gonna do? All right, well, I've been waiting a few weeks for Robbie to be ready to talk about it. Porter ground rules here. what's the scope of this discussion, Robbie? are we going with this for our tens of listeners? Rob (31:47) Yeah, so my fascination lately has been in the lack of forethought to this whole operation. of listeners, just to set the stage. IRAN is often used in junior field grade officers, so we're talking majors, their education in order to get them to think about second and third order effects. So when you make a plan, when you do something, anything, and I don't care if it's like, I gotta go to the grocery store, there are second and third order effects that you have to consider. Iran has often been utilized to second and third order effects because attacking Iran's easy. were a weak the air. lacked the defenses could neutralize those things. It's not risk-free and we've seen in this last week, an got shot down. And I certainly am hoping beyond hope that that pilot is still alive and that we are able to retrieve them before they are captured by Iran. So they're not toothless, but they didn't have the sharpest of teeth. easy phase. The easy phase is the attack. The challenging phase is the second and third order effects. So have to think down the line. you do this thing, the things that are likely to come from it? And we didn't do a whole lot. And we talked about this weeks ago that my sense was hope was a course of action for them, that they thought that, gee, we're going to attack, we're going to decapitate the leadership. the people of Iran are going to rise up. We're going to have agreeable regime were going to walk away looking like superstars. And, you know, I'm not going to deny that Iran, you know, they potentially had a nuclear threat. All right, maybe down the line somewhere. Did they have missiles that could reach the US? No. Were they close? No. Could they get there? Potentially. they had the technology that they potentially could get there. And I'm not gonna deny that we've been in a bit of a stalemate with them for the last 40 years since the overthrow of the shawl. Attacking Iran's easy. them is easy. gets hard, and this is the second and third order effects, is that they have position which allows them to control the straight-ahorn moves. Now, for our tens of listeners, I want you to go to the map. I want you to look at the Persian Gulf. a narrow area when you're leaving the Persian golf that is the straight of the rest of it, it's Hormuz. So when you're leaving the Persian Gulf, there is a narrow area called the Strait of Hormuz waterway narrows. And the Iranians have a really long shoreline along the Strait of Hormuz. It's a very mountainous David (34:26) Kormis. Rob (34:45) They have several islands that they have control of that extend out into the Persian Gulf. It makes it challenging to control that waterway if they don't want us to, because it's not hard disrupt a waterway for civilian ships. be hard to do it for military ships. Harder, but still. And you can speak toward this, minds and drawings and... David (35:05) With drones. Yeah, with drones, man. mean, missiles, missiles are one thing. They're, they're big. They're, you know, fairly easy to track on radar. have SM-2s, SM-3s that can take out missiles pretty easily, but they're expensive drones are really small. They're They're fast, but not so it is more difficult to take out drones than, than missiles. And they're cheap. They're cheap as shit. You can throw a whole bunch of drones out even if you're, you know, getting all 99 % of the 1 % are the point, 0.1 % if you're throwing so incredibly dangerous. even our Rob (35:29) Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. David (35:45) It's the missile systems that are actually primarily for defense on ships. probably pretty lucky at this moment in time that Iran has not chosen to attack our fleet because they probably could. Rob (35:57) Well, I think our fleet is positioned such that outside of their range. David (36:02) we're not in the straight. And that's kind of the point is we're not offering up the support that we could because it would be too dangerous. You're asking for warships to be sunk if you put them in that straight right only reason that they don't do it typically is because they don't want to start a war, right? The only reason Rob (36:04) Yes, exactly. And we don't want to do that. David (36:22) that you can have those ships in the Strait of a regular day is that they're safe because you're walking quietly and holding a big stick. But as it turns out, you're walking around hitting people with the stick, not just carrying it. Rob (36:38) It draws attention. David (36:39) have the tendency to punch back and it's not as fun. The embarrassment of having a warship sunk by a $20,000 drone or 10 would be probably too much, but that's why they're not defending it, they can't. Rob (36:41) Yeah. Well. there's no doubt there's a challenge there from a purely sea power standpoint. The other issue here is that if you can control the Stray-the-Horn Moose, if you can just disrupt it, if you can dump a bunch of mines there, if you can control the sea line, you can launch a lot of cheat drones, it limits military power have some capability to defend themselves. shuts transport. not gonna take the risk. They're not gonna take these multi-million, $100 million ships through the Strait of Hormuz because they have zero ability to protect themselves. David (37:35) what this reminds me of is when I was a younger human, I would say when you were a little kid and you were riding around in your parents' vehicle, you thought it was the most amazing, fast thing ever, sitting in the back of minivan And your parent floors it once or whatever, and you're like, holy shit, this is a rocket ship. It's the most amazing thing. And you have that belief it's kind of invincible, just like your parents in your mind. But then you become a teenager and you don't have access to a sports car. And then all of sudden you're the one driving. And you realize that physics starts to play this role in your life that you never thought about before, because your mind, you could vehicle was you own a minivan, yeah, it can fit a whole bunch of people. And wonderful. And you could maybe even move. some furniture in it, but you're not going to get off the line and go zero to 60 in three seconds and that damn thing. And it doesn't occur to you until you start to drive. what surprises me is that Donald Trump thought, I mean, he's heard, we have the greatest military in the world. We have the most powerful military. We can do some amazing things, but it wasn't until he decided to take it for a spin. that he realized that that doesn't mean that it can both be fast and economical at the same might be really quick, but you don't have the ability to help your buddy move. that didn't connect in his brain. I don't know if it still has, but it's become apparent that yes, we can bomb the. Jesus out of Iran from a distance. But that takes away our ability to control the shoreline because they're gonna try to fight back. And so yeah, man, you got a fast car, but you're not moving your couch. Rob (39:35) guess I'm hoping that our tens of listeners understand is that restricting the straight-ahorn moves, it restricts 20 of the oil. And this idea that what's been proposed is, we don't need it. And we do produce quite a lot of oil. There's no doubt about it. David (39:35) can't have a- Rob (39:53) However, we are also tied to And that world the prices of oil, regardless of you're pulling it out of Texas you're pulling it out of the Persian a barrel of oil costs the same thing. So if 20 % of the world's oil is restricted, it's going to economy. It's gonna affect the world economy. when fuel prices increase, it's going to affect food prices. It's going to affect goods prices. It's going to when you buy of underwear from Amazon, and they're already adding surcharges. announced it this week. also what I want our tens of listeners to understand is your little town, whatever town you live in, or maybe you live in a big town. I who knows, but imagine taking it over. Imagine controlling it militarily. It's no easy task. Space is bigger when you're there. And if you look on a map and you think, all right, we're gonna go take a cargo island. we're gonna occupy shoreline of big when you are a human who is our ability to take island is limited. Our ability to shoreline of Iran along the Strait of Hormuz is ridiculously limited and it requires a ton. of on the ground soldiers. We have to push in deep in order to control this. So, you know, my speculation is in the next couple of, and if I'm wrong, call me out on it, our tens of listeners. My speculation is in the next two weeks, we're gonna be in a ground war. We're gonna have troops on the ground. We're gonna try to take Karg That's not gonna do it. It's not gonna be sufficient. because shoreline is still there. and then it's going to escalate from there. And, before you know it, there's going to 40,000 troops, in Iran. what's, relevant about this is that, we started it. We can't step away from Unhurt. we can bomb the shit out of them Unfortunately, we've had shot down and they're hurt. We've had soldiers killed and other military members killed so far. That's a real cost. But even if we, in doing what we've done, attacking in a relatively safe way, We can't step away from this without consequence. And what I'm hearing right now from the administration is we came, we attacked, we won, we're stepping away because we don't need the oil. But there's a lack of understanding of the second and third order effects to the world economy, to our economy, just the nature of it. And this is something that's taught to, you know, 30 year old low ranking field officers. And I'm absolutely incensed is the best word these things weren't adequately considered. David (42:49) maybe they mean, Pete Hegseth on as they were being scrutinized for not considering these second order effects, and he said very clearly that we definitely considered them. So I guess the two options that we have are they didn't consider them at all, which is. Kind of a huge oversight or they were considered and ignored. It was just something they said. It doesn't really matter. Now. I believe Donald Trump is notoriously famous for not actually paying attention to the security briefings no, the security briefings that he's given and doesn't really care much about the details. I can only imagine that as they're like, well, you know, Rob (43:19) details. David (43:28) there's a possibility or strong possibility that the straight-up harmonize and he probably was okay, go away. Yeah, just do it anyway. I don't know that he did that. I have no that's conjecture. said that they considered it. Um, it clearly is having an effect. here's of pisses me off. Rob is we were to go listen show weeks and weeks ago, we unfortunately tend to be pretty right when it comes to our predictions about the future now in all fairness. yeah, but yeah, but in all fairness, Ray Charles could see these things coming from a mile away. So Rob (43:55) our narcissism. You called this three months ago, that was going to happen. David (44:07) Are we geniuses who can predict the future or is this just playing out exactly, way all of us should expect? 30 % of the Republican by then applauding All right, this is great. My underwear costs more money as it turns out, Rob (44:13) Yes. David (44:28) you said gas does increase the cost of shipping anything we're all about to find out if you try to travel but I guess if you never live your hometown who gives a shit you don't really unfortunate Rob (44:39) start to care with your Amazon orders because they've added a surcharge. So it's going to affect everyone, everyone. David (44:42) Yeah. Yeah. no, it already has. Yeah, it already has. the really telling part of it is that while simultaneously doing all of this, they've also made efforts, clear efforts to dismantle our country's ability to rely on related fuel sources. So getting rid of solar, getting rid of wind. making it less desirable to own an electric car. mean, I'm going to predict right now that people are going to want electric cars more as gas stays super. paid five 60 the other day for a gallon of gas, five 66, I think is what it was. So yeah, I think the demand for those things will go up, but, this administration has been. famously salty against them. seems to be more based upon Biden's desire to move the country into more green energy than anything was just somebody else liking it, meaning that we have to hate it. you know, fun when geopolitical economics. starts playing a real role in your life when you just want to sit in your little hometown and Live your life. Rob (45:52) There are a few times in my life where I've been more frustrated. Most of the time throughout my my life. David (45:58) It happens to every guy, Robbie. It's not a big deal, okay? You just let it go, Robbie. You gotta just work through it. Just let it go. Rob (46:03) never happened to me. I, right. I've never failed to perform. I'm so sorry. there's been few times, so throughout most of my life, I have not always agreed, with the decisions that were made. I did have the sense that, all right, they have more understanding. have information that I don't have, driven this. and they're considering the second and third order effects. This is one that is just stunningly lacking long-term consideration and the talking points at this particular juncture are completely inconsistent with the realities. we won, we're leaving, we don't need their oil. It's someone else's problem. David (46:48) Now give us $200 billion this war. Rob (46:51) Yeah, inconsistent with the reality of how this will truly affect us that if we walk away the straight-ahorn moose is still basically under Iranian control. David (47:02) if we were doing therapy with this administration, like when somebody comes and all they can talk about is their you gotta ask. So it sounds like you still have feelings there. Rob (47:11) Ha! David (47:17) And they're like, no, it's over. It's done. I don't care anymore. And then they just completely rail on that person. say, then why can't on with your life? And the reality is because the feelings still exist. I think the same thing here when the administration keeps coming in and saying, over, it's done. We've won. then my therapy mind goes to, so why are we still talking about it? Why are we still attacking? why are we escalating? there a disconnect? Are we just lying to ourselves? Are they just lying to themselves? Are they trying to deceive? and trying to hide that from us? What's going on, Robbie? where my mind goes. Rob (48:04) Well, I guess this is the frustrating thing is that it's a lack of going back to Woodrow Wilson, the buck stops here. The buck doesn't ever stop. It just keeps running because there's no place for it to know, the buck stops with the responsible party that said, yes, let's do this. I don't think I'm going to surprise our tens of listeners and saying that that was a presidential decision. And now it's becoming other people's responsibility. The buck is being pushed to other people. It's our allies fault. it's China's responsibility. It's, Japan's responsibility because they get most of their oil from the Persian Gulf. But that's not how the world works. produce ton of oil. Okay, fine. But if you are an oil producer here in the United the barrel of oil is $160 United States is saying, but we want you to sell it to us for 60. They're going to say, ha. David (48:48) We didn't love him anyway, Robbie. Rob (49:07) Ha ha no, we're going to sell for 160 bucks because that's what it's worth right now. And consequences. David (49:13) spend millions of dollars on your campaign to sell our oil for below market value, I think is what they're saying. We didn't put you here to lose money. second order effects to that. And I think that's what we're seeing. So as you said, they weren't considered. in general, maybe the larger picture for all of us. Rob (49:20) Exactly. David (49:34) American voter is that there are second order of facts to everything, second and third and fourth and fifth. And if it's a little more difficult to buy a birthday gift for your kid's friend, that's has to do with how the voting public voted. Donald Trump's war. Rob (49:45) That feels personal. David (49:49) is something that he did. So it's on him. Rob (49:51) Well, it reminds me of my misspent youth. spent too much time in bars And this is the equivalent of one of those scenarios in which sucker punch someone in a bar and quickly leave. then, David (50:05) hope the cops don't show up later. As All I think that's it, Robbie. Rob (50:07) Yeah, yeah, absolutely. David (50:10) We've covered maybe not to everyone's satisfaction, but know, we're pretty good at Getting people excited and leaving them, and dry. So prescriptions Rob (50:15) Yeah, and that's the truth. we have to stop as a society of demanding clean wins. If you demand a clean win all the time, you're going to get sold fake wins. And what we're looking at right now is an entirely fake win. David (50:37) yeah, absolutely. it's weird to frame it from the perspective of wanting a clean win. If you were not wanting it in the first place, but yeah, wanting it to just be over without any secondary effects. especially when you didn't ask for it in the first place. So. mine speaks to if you were offered position you're clearly not qualified for just because somebody says, I think you'd be great at this. you might be getting set up for failure a good idea to check your own credentials and resume. to decide if this is a job you should be doing. And if somebody's just building you up for failure, then maybe recognize that because you're going down with the ship. Okay. Robbie. closing thoughts. Rob (51:23) Fuck. David (51:24) Hear to hear first folks, fuck. All right. Well, thanks to everybody for sticking around, having to listen to us. Hopefully this calmed your nerves and didn't get you all riled Rob (51:27) Ha ha ha! It shouldn't. shouldn't. Everyone should be terrified. David (51:36) Yeah, we'll get terrified people. So thanks so much. Hit subscribe, hit like, share us with your friends. go back a few episodes and listen to us and see that we actually were surprisingly accurate at times stupid and ridiculous, but we're not wrong. So Rob (51:50) Yeah. But not wrong. ⁓ we're idiots, but we're not wrong. David (51:54) Maybe that should be our new, that should be our new. we're ridiculous, we're stupid, but we're not wrong. Rob (52:02) No, you called, called this months ago after Venezuela. You said this is what's we're still waiting on Cuba. And softened a bit on Cuba. We're letting some oil get in, but because we got other shit going on, but you, you nailed it. David (52:02) The not wrong drunk idiots. Cuba. Yeah, that's temporary. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to be in prediction mode Pete Hagseth gets I don't know if he'll be, it'll be soon, but it'll be next for sure. Pete Hagseth will be, will be blamed for this war not going the way Donald Trump wants it to be. he'll be on the chopping block here Yep. think he'll be the next one. So, all it. Rob (52:33) Yeah. We're going on record. going on record, folks. David (52:41) We'll cue up that music and we are out.