The Myth of Inevitable Power

David (00:00) This one of those weeks where the news cycle was screaming about apocalypse then actually nevermind. So we're going to talk about something a little Hungry. Victor Bond loses after years of looking untouchable after turnout hits the kind of numbers that says the spell broke. today isn't about Hungry is the News story. It's about what has to change inside a group before people stop assuming the outcome is inevitable start acting like their actions This is Strengthen the Nation. Let's go. David (01:07) right. Hey, I'm David. I've got over 20 years in the military. I am still somehow board certified over. enjoying IPA because why the hell not? Rob (01:21) Yeah, why the hell not? Hey, it's Rob. 30 years in the military and 26 in psychiatry, board certified as well. Just once over there, not twice over. And I am actually making a very long drive right now. think it would be borderline irresponsible and clearly illegal for me to be drinking anything. I'm actually sipping on some coffee, iced coffee specifically, and being very cautious about the laws of the road. David (01:50) Yeah, shit for the Tom and Dave is currently. that's a bold move to be drinking the iced coffee. Rob (01:56) Well, it's got a long drive ahead. David (01:58) I hear ya. Well, because you're in the car I'm not, I don't know that today's gonna be the longest episode, and there really wasn't a whole lot to talk about this week, but what the hell, let's give it a go anyway. Rob (02:10) Yeah, it was an odd week from, you usually magic just falls from the sky for us. And there's always things that as the week progresses, it just presents itself as begging to be talked about. But this week, the general news cycle was kind of completely consumed by the fact that we were going to destroy civilization then put it on pause then Pakistan between the US and Iran. honestly, I don't find them very interesting right now. So let's talk about something else. David (02:42) not really much to talk about domestically, but we did just find out that Hungary has elected a new prime minister, something Orban, Rob (02:44) President. David (02:53) surprising. He's kind of turnout does one need to get as the dictator of your country? Rob (03:00) Well, as it turns out about David (03:04) It was like closer to 77. yeah, you gotta really piss off your country. Rob (03:08) Well, and you know, for our tens of listeners, this this is a individual who's been heavily supported by administration. fact, Vice President JD Vance went to Hungary in order to campaign basically for President Trump made a promise to give Hungary. don't know. billion dollars or something like that. kind of support with the connection of you vote in or bond, you're going to get the money. And he still got beat. know, around the globe, Victor Orban was, Donald Trump's most ardent external supporter. He's been a thorn in the the EU 16 years. long time, and definitely exerted some significant authoritative tendencies inside of Hungary and really from the external observer power locked down. And He was defeated with an incredible turnout. conceded election, which I find it striking that we have to virtual dictatorship to get an example of a peaceful transfer of power. David (04:14) Yeah. Yeah. Impressive nonetheless. Rob (04:16) Well, shifted that country psychologically? What's the difference? David (04:20) I think that's probably best question at this don't have a horse in that race, but psychologically is interesting he said such long run had what seemed to be such a good string of hold over his country that something had to change, something had to give. But Rob (04:24) We're going to have to wait. Thank you. David (04:38) 77 % or 70 plus percent turnout is striking, a pissed off group of people. Rob (04:45) out of 10 eligible voters to the polls. And I don't have the statistics offhand for what the turnout for the U.S. is. realize we more millions of people actually go, but that's because we have a bigger population. what does it motivate eight out of 10 voting adults Hungary? David (05:06) Yeah. Well, I think we're looking at Rob (05:07) Well, I think we looked at it David (05:10) % would crazy high the voting eligible population in the US. Rob (05:10) It was. Bye. Thank you. you quickly look up what the percentage was for the last, say, three elections? David (05:24) 2024 the US was 2020 was 65.3 % and 2016 was For Hungary, it was the last two cycles, 2022, 2018, and then 60.5 in 2014. still really high, really, really high. Um, and I think you could see in 2024 nearly the difference in the outcome was probably, you know, close to that small percentage in those who showed matters. Rob (06:00) as it turns out in a democracy voting does count. It does matter showing up, going to the polls. I guess the question that I have, particularly for what's going on with Hungary, is what prompted it this time as opposed to the last time or the time before? What shifted? And really, I guess my curiosity more is that we look back over history in the United States, are cycles of political dominance that last a certain amount of time. And they used to be more consistency was maybe a little higher. I mean, how long did the Democrats hold Congress? a very, very long time. They had a stranglehold on Congress. And then something shifted. So I guess my curiosity is, largely because we can sort of look at a leader with certain autocratic tendencies, we can extrapolate that into current stance here in the United States. So what did it take for a leader that did enjoy a long period kind of unwavering support, or at least unwavering support by the voting population, what did it take for it to finally shift? And why is the environment there such that him refusing to accept the results, I mean, I'm finding it hard to believe he didn't ponder that. David (07:16) Well, think systematically, he had been doing all of the things that one would need to do to convert a country from democracy to a dictatorship, taking control of colleges, taking control of media, areas, all that. those were the things that were in place, which would have made easier to remain in power, even with high voter turnout. big thing is, and I think we saw this in, early 20th century, which was that even with everything going the way of the ruling party, as far as the potential outcome, What you eventually have is a group of voters, young voters, typically, who have only grown up with that party in power that say, okay, enough, no more. Rob (08:02) Well, and you know, after 16 years, what we are looking at is certainly a different voting base, with that, you know, 77 % that comes in. I mean, it's a different generation. guess what we're seeing probably limits to this, that you can be so autocratic that you truly do have a stranglehold the levers of power such that you can continue to control your elections. But what this demonstrates is you can stack the deck, but eventually if you're not achieving the things that you're promising, things that brought you in to power, A new generation will come along and say, of this. Because that's what they do. David (08:41) Yeah, economically, was probably the this point for Victor Raban. authoritarian things are going people easy time looking the other way. But when you start to lose that control, you know, what are you selling people? Especially if you're still following a democratic model as far as elections go. So it's kind of, I'd say there's maybe something interesting about that is that his own ego might be reason that he lost. But I mean that from Rob (09:07) Thank David (09:16) He probably had the ability at some point to eliminate elections, right? Eliminate at least the people having some kind of voice in whether he was there, but he probably enjoyed winning, right? He probably enjoyed having people show up and vote for him, which would make him say, well, why would I change this? Rob (09:35) you know, China has elections. It's just the fingers on the scale. So you can continue to have elections and not be democratic. The thing that separates it is, you know, free and fair elections and, you know, peaceful transfers of power. know, I guess, and I hate to read too much into this is a single data point, but I'm wondering if this doesn't hint at maybe democracies, because we've started to look at democracies as being fragile things. Maybe they're a little more resilient than we're giving them credit for. David (10:09) Yeah, Well, I think you've said it so many times that democracy is a terrible way to govern until you look at every other way. Rob (10:16) Yeah. David (10:16) And, think that it's not people that you probably going to do something that they'll like. It's a lot harder to do Rob (10:28) As it turns out, results are more difficult than promises. You're right. You're right. David (10:32) But it wasn't necessarily that he was super delivering on what he was promising. I think a big part of it was that his opposition was so it was so difficult to overcome I do think Rob (10:39) So it was not the same thing. was that we stayed focused on the kind And we were to that And so we had And had to And to point. And David (10:45) that's a real challenge that the Democratic party has is being so who they're speaking sometimes. you have a where one primary voice, it is really be able to consolidate that kind of big change just the far as in Hungary, they still they had weaker living decaying public services. I mean, all those things were there. But then all of sudden you had a unifying decade and a offered people who were not pro-Orban option that felt comfortable that is something that I think did and part of it just less than 100 days to even the 2024 cycle, what did the Democratic Party Well, had, if you trace it backwards, it wasn't hundred days campaign. It was prior to Biden had gone into the assumption for most that that was going to be the one time he ran. so when he didn't give that up in the 2022, that really threw their party a for him to then step aside with a hundred days left not have a but rather himself select somebody. just didn't get people. excited but I think that's what has been happening Hungary so they just didn't have a cohesiveness to the opposition and they finally did. Rob (12:19) the messiness of democracy. one, it's the reason why it's a powerful form of government in the grand scheme. It is also why it's so messy in the short term and at any given moment in time, because we are talking about trying to gain a plurality of people to support one of the problems that I guess I've seen over the last say 15 years is that things weren't bad enough elicit the kind of unity that it requires. Whereas on the Republican side, when they adopted sort of the MAGA movement, They honestly felt like things were bad enough they really did feel like an existential threat to their way of life and there's a lot of reasons for that and if you follow this show we've talked about tons of these reasons, the changes in culture and society, etc. I guess the issue with the Democrats over the last eight years, ten years has been nature of what them up to vote. And it is a very fractured coalition of people. what they're interested in, what they feel is important. defeated Bernie Sanders in the primary, there were a large number of people. Now it ended up Biden still won. But there were a large number of people that said, if it's not for Bernie, I'm not voting, period. And therein struggle with the struggle with achieving a coalition that can elect. And I guess what we see in Hungary is if you wait long enough and if the dictator does not exert the kinds of controls that make it impossible, you know, just basically suspending elections, eventually gets bad enough that people unify. What sucks is we've got to let it get bad enough before there's that David (14:05) Yeah. does, but what gets people excited to people are, single issue voters. So they only want to vote when they have a thing for don't get me wrong, there's a lot of dissolution, man. Rob (14:11) Yeah. David (14:19) voters like their votes just don't in some ways that is kind of true. Your single vote may not make a damn difference, if you're feeling that are the odds know, a thousand other might have voted feel the same way or tens of thousands or a million? matters. when things do get bad and it is much easier to blame the party in power for when things get bad, even though you and I have spoken about this before, some of this stuff that happens has nothing to do with who's currently in power. the exception a president goes above and beyond. to make executive decisions that they otherwise wouldn't typically be able to make. And then starts to really put their finger on the scales of like the stock market, economy and stuff like that. But generally, it's just easier to blame whoever's in especially if the person who is succeed them is making an effort to not separate themselves on what they'll do differently, which is what we saw. in 2024. Rob (15:21) and the painful thing about democracy is that we have all these checks and balances which end up making things go really slowly. And, you know, a human life is only X number of years where some of these things are measured in decades, maybe longer. I'll use Roe versus The downstream consequences of that recent change will be felt over the next decades. And it will only be after a certain amount of pain realized before public opinion shifts yet again important again. know that might be the span of a lot of people's or their adult life. So it's David (16:01) even or their you see these bigger swings the old people how they're gonna It's when the young voters come in for the first time, they start having an impact. That's where things do seem to make. Rob (16:08) It's. David (16:14) wild shifts and it has so much to do with what their reality is. things change on the margin, Rob (16:21) do. so, David (16:24) It really does come down to this, that one or 2 of in certain states, Rob (16:24) Mm-hmm. It does you're making me think of is that existing in a democracy requires a certain ability to sit with uncertainty in a different way than say, living under an autocratic leader does. more anxiety that's associated in a democracy than in an autocracy, or at least the anxiety is different. suppose worrying about the secret police busting your door down is anxiety, if not outright fear. But what we have to do is sit with the mechanisms, all the checks and balances, it's two steps forward, one step back, anytime you're trying to make big change, that's how it's supposed to be. That's how it's designed to be. because of the tyranny of time, we only get one life. We only have so much time on this earth. We wanna see things change a way that feels measurable to us, whereas most change actually happens on a glacial scale. that doesn't feel measurable, that creates uncertainty and anxiety, and it leads people to be attracted to simple solutions such as only I can fix it. worldview. hesitate to call it childlike, but it is certainly a black and white worldview is certainly alleviating of anxiety. David (17:49) Well, it strips away nuance, just less complicated to think about. when but when you're trying to touch somebody an emotional level, it's so difficult to do that when you were using realistic measured speak. Rob (17:52) absolutely. Yes. David (18:04) it just how many times a day or a week, I should say, in your life as a psychiatrist, does somebody come to you with something that, you know, it's charged, it's emotional, it's so one-sided. your job, our job is to calm that down by looking at it from multiple directions from kind of evaluating, well, is it really that? Is it really what you're even saying? or is it something else? Is there more to this story? because headline is not the story. And yet we like the headline and people like to be distraught. Rob (18:34) So, I hope that you will You know, So, you know, David (18:42) They like to be upset. They like to be excited about something. we're buzz kills on that. It's like, well, what really What's the nuance to Rob (18:42) It's a love to It's a love to be inside. for you to feel a little bit more. It's a way to It's a way David (18:51) when you're trying to sell that as a political then wants to listen to that? Who wants to listen to the person's like, well, you know, is tough, but we're going make some sacrifices to make this better, which we can do. Rob (18:51) Yeah. Right. David (19:02) But over time in the next 20 years, things are gonna get a lot better. Nobody wants to fucking hear You only got four years. They want the person who's like, I'm gonna fix it now. I'm gonna make it all better. Rob (19:11) Yeah, day one, I will solve all these David (19:15) Yeah. I've got the concepts of a plan in my head. Rob (19:18) yeah, we go backwards in time to the start of this administration. There was that flurry of activity in that first 100 days they had had four years to prepare. And what it ended up the illusion of change, the illusion of progress. And most of what they instituted either didn't work out has been stopped in the courts. might take the courts nine months to catch up with been And that illusion of in a great deal the base, particularly the Republican The difference being is that illusion of change is really not how democracies and how do you emotionally attach to a voter and be reasonable? And I don't know. mean, some people have that magic ability. think Obama that ability. Bill Clinton had that ability. Actually, mean, George W. Bush had that ability where he did connect. certainly, depending on your political bend, you can talk about who was reasonable and who wasn't. at any rate, I think we've killed this topic. Here's a question for you. I just want a hot take. We don't have to go into this very deeply. But when you read that the United States has decided to barricade Strait of Hormuz, what was your gut reaction to that? David (20:37) My reaction was trying to relate this to on a personal level. If I walked into your house. and I shot you in the leg. And your response was too. pull out a gun, tell me you don't shoot me in the leg. I shot myself in the That's what this feels like. Rob (20:51) So, next You know what I mainly thought of was your kid that said, you I didn't poop my pants, you poop my pants. David (20:59) No, it would be like... I accuse, Rob (21:00) In reverse, obviously. David (21:02) doesn't work. See, it does have that child, this logic to it. And that's kind of where, so I get would be like me telling my kid gonna take away their cell phone if they get bad grades. And so they smash it with a hammer in advance. that I don't have that control over That's what it feels what it feels like. Rob (21:20) Yeah. and think you've nailed a scenario. And for our listeners, sucking latest political news, like it's heroin straight through your arm like I do. David (21:34) I boil it on a spoon with a lighter and I just inject it directly into my Rob (21:39) Yeah, are going to barricade, we are going to barricade the Strait of Hormuz. Now, so everyone's tracking, part of the the only leverage that Iran has is that they're blockading the Strait of Hormuz and restricting a very significant portion of the world's oil from the world. David (21:41) fossa. Rob (22:02) which is why as I'm driving to stop and get gas, I'm paying, 4.20 for a gallon of gas. David (22:08) that's lovely. I paid five something, Actually went down. It went down. So I think I paid five 50 this weekend. Yeah. Rob (22:11) Okay. Well, then I won't complain. But so us barricading the straight or amuse does not fix the problem. The problem still exists. We're still going to have limits to the world's fuel. It's still going to resolve and probably a world recession. an economic crisis that will be years to resolve. But we can say we did it. David (22:37) But now it's our fault. But we did it. We did this time. Rob (22:40) Now in defense, honestly, there's some nuance here. I don't want to overly black and white it. In defense of the least bad decision, which sometimes you got to make the least bad. Really part of what they're doing is stopping those few ships that are getting through the strait by paying Iran. So they don't want Iran to reap any rewards from from this blockade. So in theory, they're trying to remove incentive from Iran. In practice, the problem is still there. Iran still holds the cards. David (23:13) I I mean, I get it economically. does make sense. Yeah, we don't want Iran to make any money from their own blockade. Cool. But that's kind of being in a battle with your because they're fucking lemon tree is hanging over your yard and drops leaves in it. You don't like Rob (23:17) you. you David (23:32) And method of getting them back, because you don't want them to profit off the lemon tree, is to go bust up their kids' lemonade stand the street they're selling lemonade for a dollar a That's what this is like. Rob (23:44) fundamental problem still exists, yes. Yeah, we'll see how it plays out. David (23:48) I mean, it's it's it's just like how much how much money are we preventing Iran from really getting by doing that continue our misery. So Rob (23:56) Yeah, I don't know. And honestly, I'm still flummoxed by a path forward. I can't envision, particularly with the breakdown in talks, the fact that I ran a signal that is no amount of pain we can inflict upon them from the air that will get them to capitulate. Of course, that might just be big talk. Who knows? But yeah, I'm flummoxed. Not seeing this one end well. David (23:56) It's. No, Well, remember your prediction that we'll have boots on the ground within a few weeks is still unfulfilled. But I think we still have time before I want to see a drawdown before I'll call you wrong. Rob (24:30) love to stand before our tens of listeners and say, I was wrong. Completely missed that one. That would make me happy. David (24:37) Yeah, I think it'd probably make a lot of us happy. think it's ridiculous. I think we might be shooting ourselves in the foot. but a way to go, I suppose. And it's probably, I mean, but probably better than, the threat that we were making before to, just wipe out their entire country, including civilians or whatever. And, you know, the war crimes that that would probably be. Rob (24:51) Sure. entire civilization never to return again. David (24:56) attached to. Yeah, that's probably, probably maybe better. Rob (25:03) That shit got the movie Anchorman. That really took a turn. David (25:05) You Rick killed a guy. Rob (25:08) I stabbed a man with a David (25:12) You should probably low for a while, Britt. Rob (25:13) Right, gonna need to find a safe house. Yeah. All right. You got any prescriptions for this messed up world? David (25:20) do actually. a key, if we look at Hungary, is that sometimes you just gotta give somebody enough rope to hang themselves. And if you're patient, sentiment will change. It will change. It's changed coming up on 250 years of this experiment and we've seen nothing like this before, but lot of lessons are being learned enough time, this is surely showing measurable points that whatever it is that we're seeing is successful. And people will eventually catch up with that change their minds. So, patient and vote. Rob (25:55) Yeah, be patient and vote. That really kind of plays into mine as well that you can't say you love democracy and say you hate checks and balances. They're just part and parcel. It's how we protect ourselves from rapid swings. It's how we protect ourselves from autocracy. It's how we maintain our democracy. So you love freedom and you love America, gotta love our checks and balances because those founding fathers and mothers that we revere, put them in there for a reason. had lived the alternative and they're there for a reason and they have served our best interests even if they do not serve necessarily the psychological need for immediate gratification. David (26:36) add to that, I do is entirely fair, to go decade plus really question, some of the actions that were made Democrats and Republicans to make changes certain rules, squeeze in their own policies, that is kind of led off to a lot of what we're seeing now. it's hard to stay high and mighty and, look at the past and say you were infallible. When the truth is, think this is what we're seeing is the culmination of a lot of not being patient, People being frustrated with way things were and wanting to force change. Well, when you do that, Rob (27:01) Thank you. David (27:09) down the line other people might do it the way that you don't like it, know Rob (27:13) water. David (27:15) yeah, that's a great analogy. Rob (27:14) Yeah, once you when you start stripping away the guard rails, even if you think you're doing the right thing and you're trying to get change, it chums the water and then the sharks come and we don't like sharks. David (27:30) no, some people understand how a democracy works to understand that. somebody is going to be out there liking whatever it is there. Doesn't mean everyone does. It just means enough people need to. so also taking shortcuts have a now win rarely works out in the longterm. And that's psychiatry. Rob (27:40) Right. David (27:48) say this all the time, is shortcut answers to your problems are rarely the long-term solution. Rob (27:54) Finally go down in that basement and get that raccoon carcass throwback. In a Walmart bag, absolutely. right, buddy. David (28:00) Gotta love that throwback. Well, I think that's pretty much it for a show today. So Thank you so much to our tens of listeners for around with us We really appreciate you. Go ahead hit subscribe like send it off to a friend if you can you so much. So we're gonna cue up that music and we are out