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Trump, Iran, and Impulsive Power

Shrink the Nation examines Trump, Iran, impulsive power, military escalation, projection, ego repair, and why hope is not strategy.

Show notes

## Why this episode matters This episode begins with a rapidly moving crisis: the United States entering direct conflict with Iran. But Dr. David and Dr. Robby are not doing military prediction. They are examining the behavioral pattern underneath the decision environment. The frame is impulsive power: what happens when embarrassment, projection, short-term ego repair, and military capability collide before the political end state is clear. ## The behavioral frame The hosts return to a simple military principle: hope is not a course of action. A serious strategy needs a purpose, an achievable end state, and a theory of how military action produces that end state. When those pieces are unclear, the public is left with a dangerous substitute: hope that the target government collapses, hope that the population rises up, hope that the next phase works itself out. That is not strategy. That is wishful escalation with weapons attached. ## Key mechanisms ### Hope as strategy substitute The episode's central warning is that hope cannot carry the weight of war planning. Hope that another country's people will rise up, hope that a new government will be better, or hope that escalation stays contained does not answer the basic operational question: what is the mission and how does it end? ### Impulsive escalation Dr. David and Dr. Robby use the marshmallow experiment as a way to think about impulse control and delayed gratification. In this frame, the question is whether a leader can wait long enough for diplomacy, planning, and second-order effects to matter. ### Projection as forecast The episode revisits earlier public claims that another president might start a war with Iran to save face. The hosts treat those claims as psychologically revealing: a way of projecting one's own imagined use of power onto someone else. ### Military capability without strategic clarity The United States military can execute with extraordinary power and precision. But capability does not create purpose. The military can be excellent at the assigned task while the political task itself remains poorly conceived. ### Foreign villain as anxiety container Iran becomes more than a foreign-policy problem. It becomes a target that can organize anxiety, embarrassment, strength performance, and domestic political pressure into a single object. ### Empathy failure at scale The episode turns sharply toward civilian suffering and the difficulty of holding distant human cost in mind. A school, a bomb, a hundred children, and the moral distance created when people become abstractions inside geopolitical narratives. ## The larger warning The danger is not simply that a powerful country can act. The danger is acting before the end state is defined, then treating hope as if it were planning. Once violence begins, the consequences are not carried by the people who made the decision from comfortable rooms. ## Listener prescription Do not accept hope as strategy. Ask what the mission is, what the end state is, how the action gets there, and who pays if the theory is wrong. And before anyone starts a war, the toddler rule applies: sandwich, sippy cup, nap, then decision.

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Transcript

David (00:00) you noticed how often the biggest decisions in the world right now feel rushed? Like someone got embarrassed on Tuesday and by Friday we're moving aircraft carriers, There's the strange pattern where limits show up, the court ruling, the political loss, the negotiation that doesn't go your way. Instead of recalculating, the volume just goes up. And when volume becomes a strategy, things escalate fast. Tonight, we're talking about what happens when impulsivity meets power and why hope is not a plan. This is Shrink the Nation. Let's go. David (01:09) Hey, I'm David. got my 20 plus years in the military. am a board certified psychiatrist, twice over. I today have a big old glass of water with ice in it because damn, it's been a busy day and it's going to continue to be busy. So that's where I'm going with. Rob (01:25) Rob, 30 years in the military, 26 now in actually have some Buffalo Trace this hit all key performance indicators today, did all the things. David (01:33) look at you go. Rob (01:38) all my PK eyes are in the positive. have a bourbon David (01:41) don't know that a bourbon at the moment. later today, but we'll see how that goes. Now, while we were preparing for this episode, think we ran into, gosh, a bit of a hiccup. And that hiccup was that we started a war, or what we assume will be a war. as I continue to try to figure out Robbie, what the fuck are we going to talk more info keeps coming out and is ceased to be so much stuff. definitely wanted address that in the room we talk about anything else. Rob (02:09) for our tens of listeners, were pondering talking about America Healthy Again movement and the interesting psychology of that throughout this week. But as is often the case, the news cycle moves our show does. Show, calling this a show, that's funny. So. Yeah, all of a sudden we end up in a war, not that we didn't see a telegraph from a mile away. here we are. And as you mentioned, they did take out a number of the Iranian leadership structure to include the head civilian leader, which I believe is actually in violation of the rules of armed conflict. He's not a combatant, so he can't really be Only combatants can be targeted. And because he is a civilian, it violates international rules of LOAC. laws of armed conflict. David (02:58) laws of Rob (02:59) that struck me when very clearly he was specifically targeted. I the fact just a few months ago, we were conclusively promised that Iran's nuclear capability was completely eliminated in a previous airstrike. And justification for this nuclear capability, now all of a sudden that they imminent to strike the United States, flies in the face of all the information we have. know, in physics, yeah, some things are mutable, some things are immutable. David (03:30) In physics. Rob (03:36) Physics being the reality is that I actually semi supportive of this. This has been 20 years in the making. The Iranians did not play this well. They apparently did not look at Iraq and see that Brinkmanship with us is always a bad idea because when we want to be, we can be the overwhelming tsunami. Nobody can stand before the might of the United States military. is unquestionably the most powerful military in the history of humankind in every conceivable way. And I realized between conflicts, There's this habit of starting to feel like maybe we're slipping, maybe other countries are more powerful militarily, maybe they're tougher. Even our leadership, Pete Hegseth likes to say that we're slipping, that woke has made us lose a step. It's just not accurate. are unequivocally the most powerful military force in the history of the world. fuck with us at your hazard. And they didn't have a really strong position, but psychologically they were stuck We already established they have no air defenses. That was established in the last attack. So not only did they not have a strong military defensive force, or even a very effective offensive force as was established in the how many ever hundreds of drones and missiles that they launched in Israel that hit nothing. So they were lacking in that regard, because limited sliver of leadership that is so worried about maintaining its leadership, they played the brinkmanship because they didn't want to give up their power Iran. Fuck around and see what you get. David (05:18) Yeah, absolutely. Rob (05:19) I believe his son is still alive. there has been some talk about his son, like making a triumphant return or whatever. I don't know if maybe it's his grandson, who knows. David (05:30) Yeah, it's somebody in Cominny, right? Well, that's the case, you think it's gonna go the way of Machado. So let's not get ourselves on that one. Rob (05:35) Yeah. Yeah. from my standpoint, from a military standpoint, from a, shit, this might impact Rob's this is big news. This is a potential conflict that could easily spiral out of control. All the chess pieces on the board now. And there's the Houthis down in Yemen. militias Hamas is still a presence that has kind of reconstituted hit them hard, but they have Actually, their missile capabilities have been reconstituted. a lot of... players on the board to include apparently theorized sleeper cells here in the United States that could take action over this. depending on the course of events, this could definitely David (06:24) I can certainly, predict based off of nothing where I think this is going to go. none of our tens of listeners I think are tuning in to listen to you or me try to figure out what's going to happen. Rob (06:35) No, not military analysts. Although David, did you just imply that ignorance of the topic has ever stopped you from having a well-defined opinion about it? Because I don't think I believe that. David (06:38) Yeah. have a well-defined opinion whether or not I'm going to try to share that with the world. And as I said, I'm not drinking at the moment. So if I were, perhaps I would much more red-faced and willing to said opinion. Yeah. But since I'm not there at the later today, who not going to try to go off and... Rob (06:55) Mm. Well folks, let me tell you my opinion. David (07:07) explain to everybody where I think this is going. will probably more than likely give us a pretty good taste, I said, this is only a few days in the making and we haven't really had time to out where this is all going. I do want to draw attention to what I originally wanted to talk about was something that built off of our last episode. Rob (07:10) Man's playing it. David (07:25) because as I've been reflecting more and more, especially on my own past as I've watched my kids grow, and most notably my youngest, who was the wildest of my children, it got me thinking, a really interesting parallel. to the behavior observed with my kids and the behavior I see with our current sitting president. really just dawned on me, which was Rob (07:52) David, you realize the brown shirts are gonna show up at our door, both of them now, but you've crossed the Rubicon on this one. David (07:56) Possibly. Well, I've been, think it's helpful for me to in guess I a lot of on the on this what I was observing 79 year old man. who has had a lifetime to personality very, very similar lot of the authoritarian regimes we are used to there's this piece didn't really go along with it's that. driving force for so many authoritarian regimes has been this of maintaining power within the country that they're trying over. And in doing so, a typical authoritarian would go out of their way to demonstrate competency as a leader. And that is completely lacking. In fact, if anything, last week, we saw the Supreme Court overturn IEPA tariffs. And they were so disastrous economically and politically, one would assume that an authoritarian leader would look at that as a huge wanted this, but I guess we can't have And it's their fucking fault. yeah, you know, they would ride the wind of the economic the political wind of saying, look, I tried, but they took it away. But yet he's doubled down, right? Like he's actually gone said, I'm going to come up with a new force these tariffs. which are just taxes on the people like his understanding of the tariffs and how they function seems to be back. Rob (09:35) So what you're smacking at is something that has perplexed me. And when you presented this to me via text, I felt like you gave me a Rosetta Stone because where I have been a good word, flummoxed. I'm gonna ask our tens of listeners to say it with me. Flummoxed. Where I've been flummoxed is that in many, many ways, David (09:52) Lumexed. Rob (09:56) a narcissistic personality structure is how I have developed a mental model our POTUS. What has always left me confused, I'll say it again, flummoxed, has been that there is often a lack of coherence to his actions and you presented it in a lovely way. A way that all of sudden it was like, shit, you just cracked the code. When we look at someone who's 79 years old, we have the assumption that they have a fully formed personality structure. And what you're describing is someone who's arrested in many ways they continue to become an adult. They had adult things, they did adult activities, whatever. But what you proposed was, this reminds me of my three year old, which is, what is it? I love you zero, I love you zero. David (10:44) you zero. I love you zero. Well it's not just I love you zero but it's a lack of rationality that narcissistic perspective. It's I want what I want when I want but not necessarily because of any other reason than I want it. Rob (10:46) Ha So it reminds me there was a study, a lovely study that they followed these kids throughout their lives, so they brought them in a room and they gave them a marshmallow and they said, hey, if you can wait three minutes, we'll give you a second marshmallow. So don't eat this for three minutes. We'll give you a second marshmallow. And majority of the kids couldn't wait. They just immediately gobbled down the marshmallow, which really does. imply it was a different time because how many kids would actually even know what a marshmallow is now. That's not candy. Piss on you. No. My kids don't they? kids all bitch that the texture is not right. Somewhere along the line, one of the kids came up with this idea of texture and they all just adopted it that they just don't like the texture of. they're David (11:32) Kids love love marshmallows. Yeah, they fucking love them. They fucking love them. they love marshmallows. Rob (11:51) weird. Love them, every single one, but weird. At any rate, this study looked at these kids and the ones that impulsively immediately ate that. mean, no thought to the future, no thought to the second order effects. Then they followed them out through their life. The ones that actually waited. because there was a smaller number, but a reasonable number that was like, okay, I'll wait the three minutes, big fricking deal, give me a second. They end up going on in life and having reasonably positive lives with reasonable success because they could contain themselves and they could project themselves into the future. I'm absolutely convinced that had Donald Trump in associated with that study, he would have gobbled that son of a bitch up in about one second. One second, he would have just won't, he would not even heard the instructions. It would have been in his mouth. David (12:43) I actually challenge that it wouldn't just be that he would gobble it up in one second. He would then try to convince the person who had left the room that they had eaten it themselves. Rob (12:53) I didn't eat it. I didn't. got camera. No, no, you shit my pants. I didn't shit my pants. David (12:55) Just to fuck with them. ate No, you don't. No, you But you know, but that's it. That's it. And I guess, was so profound. kind of realize this. It did. It got just. Noem herself. Rob (13:11) ice is gonna show up at our doors now. No, ice is coming. Ice is coming right now. And for our, well, for our audience, David and I are about, we're so white, we're pink. We about as European as two dudes can get. And the next thing you're gonna know, you're gonna see us on whatever news channel. David (13:17) We're going to have our citizenship revoked. Rob (13:31) handcuffed and stuffed into an ICE vehicle and accused of being Mexican. David (13:36) there's a good chance. But I'm hopeful it's helpful for other people too, to get the perceived mindset. I have no idea what's in the man's head. I have no idea what's going through there. What I can say is that the behaviors seem to match up much more with that it match up more with a child who is just gets everything they want and then throws a fit when they don't then authoritarian who has this long-term strategy for how they're going to gradually assume power by building up their own status to others. is purely I want it. I want my ego. want everyone to appreciate me and praise me. And then anytime something deviates, nope, I love you zero. I hate you. Rob (14:22) I love you, Zero. So I just ran to the window and looked outside just to make sure that ice wasn't out there. Because what I have certainly learned in the last year is you don't fuck with ice. You just get shot. David (14:34) right in Rob (14:34) Luckily they're not outside right maybe later today I'll have a surprise. So keeping with this Iranian situation, what we the frame here is that they engaged high Negotiations with the choice for Trump, which is Jared Kushner. Does Jared Kushner No. Does he David (14:59) got Ivanka fuck in. Rob (15:01) Alright, alright. Which, you know. David (15:03) mean, that's a negotiator. Look at that guy. Look at her. Now, I will say to this day, I've never heard her speak. So I don't know what her voice sounds at him. Look at The guy's hell of a negotiator. Rob (15:06) Good on him. Good on him. Apparently, So anyway, beyond the fact that he landed her, he's got no credentials, he's got no background, he's got no experience. Why he's both in charge of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and with Iran, I don't know, other than tribal loyalty. which is the worst way to pick people, by the way, everyone. If you're going to pick someone to do your taxes, your brother-in-law, who you like, not the guy. You don't wanna do and in this case, he's not. They are engaged. Of course, David (15:43) Unless he's unless he's an if he's not, Rob (15:49) the nature of these kinds of negotiations, we start moving our chess pieces, we bring in carrier groups, you stack up Al-Yasaleem air base in Kuwait with extra airplanes. We do those things which are signaling, hey, we've got power. But historically, you would have let this play out. I mean, they're not gonna come to the table with their final offer. initially and the impulsivity of cutting through the red tape willing to allow it until he hit that point where the marshmallow was right there on the table and then it was in his mouth before they even had a chance to start the stop clock. David (16:28) I find interesting is that when you do go back to this series of tweets that people had pulled from Donald Trump's account before he was even president the first time, he had made these statements that, hear me now, Barack Obama is going to start a war with Iran and he's going to do it in order to reelected and that was in 2011 and then he's definitely going to attack them to make sure that he gets elected in early 2012. was predicting after he was elected he's probably going to attack Iran to save face. And then he was trying to remind people that Barack Obama is definitely going to attack Iran. think that Rob (17:08) he never did, everybody. He didn't do it. David (17:10) Well, he never, no, no, he didn't. find interesting about isn't that he had made all these predictions 15, 14 and 13 years the same things It's sees as a get out of jail free card for whoever was in the presidency. view military members in a war, he never viewed that as being but well, it happens, If you are struggling and you need a win as president, do this thing. Rob (17:43) it's also blatant example of projection that what he was doing was projecting what he would do on Barack Obama from a position, you know, it is always easiest to be the guy who's not elected, who's complaining about the guy who is the leader. It's always easier to be the opt for and for our 10th. David (18:04) That should be the name of our show, by the way. Yeah. Rob (18:08) So for our tens of listeners, the op four is the opposition force. And in all military exercises, there's a group that's designated the op four. And it's so much easier to be the op four than it is to be the one who's actually in the hot seat, making the tough calls that actually count, that actually matter. And it is a sign of maturity when an opposition, the loyal opposition, how it's supposed to work, can be supportive of and understanding of and empathic of, but still disagree. That's fine. Disagreement is what our country's built on. But Trump did back in 2012, 2013, is just such obvious, I mean, particularly in light of how it all plays out. It's just such obvious projection that he was sitting there thinking, What would I do? I would do these things. So I'm going to project that over onto Obama. And interestingly, Obama, totally different personality structure, totally he did not do these things. He did not manipulate war, military, in order to seal power. Trump forecast it for us. He told us what he was going to do. Here we are. David (19:18) Well, how consistently done that. it's that viewing the human life as collateral damage to a negotiation with no real long-term strategy past that. Because the we under the impression that Thomas Jefferson is going to rise from the ashes for the Iranian people and lead them into a democracy? I mean, and honestly, the direction we're going. Is that even something that we would Rob (19:44) be you, Thomas Jefferson. Piss off. You're not trustworthy. Vietnam, was a set that were adopted that we have then after the 80s, absolutely ignored. But the criteria was that the mission had to have a purpose. David (19:45) Yeah. Yeah. Rob (19:59) had to have an end state. And when we went into purpose was a little nebulous and the end state was totally nebulous. and then it also has to be achievable by military means. And the military can do a lot. I mean, I'm perpetually amazed by Joe power, that you can solve virtually any problem if you throw enough at it. I have moved, six tons with enough soldiers and no I do have a significant appreciation for Joe Power. But in this case, why we attacked is unclear. What the end state is to cease attacks. is unclear. It seems to me that their primary course of action was hope. Hope that the people of Iran will rise up, take over, and that the ensuing government will be better. every lieutenant is quizzed on this one. Hope is not a course of action. And we have developed that as a course of action. Hope. all of our lines of effort now are based on hope and yeah, we can bomb the shit out and we can do it with relative impunity. mean, I imagine someone's unlucky and get shot down at some point. Cause, if you throw enough lead in the air, golden BB, effect comes into play. but. I don't know where it stops. I don't know when we say enough is enough. We've mission objective. Cause I don't know what the mission objectives are. Now I'm also not sitting at the Pentagon and I've not been read in on this. There might be very clear objectives out there and I'm not discounting that because do have a lot of respect for the military leadership of this nation. and their professionalism and their ability to think about these things. But ultimately we're controlled by our civilian leadership. And if the civilian leadership sends a stupid mission, we're gonna do that mission to the best of our ability, but it still might be stupid. David (21:50) think you're giving too much credit. I think this is more of the marshmallow. We had the ability and the marshmallow was there. Hey, if you wait, we might be able to get some, not just eat the marshmallow and then blame somebody else for it. Come up with a reason why the marshmallow was eaten and not waited on. you ate the marshmallow. I do agree that I think from the military leadership perspective, for the most part, I think Rob (22:06) I didn't eat the marshmallow. David (22:15) you say, we want a plan of action to do X, Y, or Z, they will absolutely come up with the way to do it. at the lowest possible ranks to move my way up, if a task was brought in, the response was never, no, we can't do it. It was just, okay, we'll do it. And then you would find a way. And so you weren't asking if anything, you may have wanted some clarification on what the end goal was or at the very least, but if somebody said, we're going to attack Iran, you wouldn't say why you would just figure out how to do that. And so I'm confident that that happened, that they're, that they have a clear plan on how they were going to do that. but as far as what their end goal is, I don't know that that would have been asked. is a marshmallow sitting in front of somebody who is told, well, you can eat the marshmallow or you can wait until we've had more diplomatic talks. But you and I both know that a week ago, he said, going to attack them within 10 to 15 days, which meant he was going to attack them in about seven that is the secret sauce ice will come in and cut grabbing now I just described every other time he has done this but whenever he says I'm gonna attack them in two weeks he's somehow trying to get them to let their guard down so that he can do it in seven days Rob (23:25) Uh-huh. David (23:34) Whenever you ask me in hospital, like how many alcoholic beverages do you drink in a day? They'll typically half their number. And so what do we do? We just double the number that they give us. So I think when Donald Trump says, how long is it going to take to be ready? Rob (23:34) I have it. David (23:47) to attack Iran and they said, sir, we could get this done in a week. He said, great. And he told He told everyone else, I'm gonna attack you in two weeks. I think that's the, equation that is used in his head, but it's a marshmallow. I think it's a marshmallow. Rob (23:51) Three days later. You know, it's. It's also interesting that it seems to follow the news cycle. whatever the military reality is, happened on a weekend. And I don't think, I know. David (24:08) It always happens on a weekend. happens, well, it happens on like a Friday. a news cycle day NFL does that. They like to do all of their punishments. They, they do them on Friday afternoon so that it really doesn't hit the news cycle. as a military member who absolutely loved my Fridays when we would have our barbecues and all the other fun things that we do when we're not at war, I'd be pissed. Rob (24:18) Mm-hmm. also hitting on a thing, this is a responsibility of the military, but tens of listeners who may or may not have served, you rise in rank by achieving, by doing, by being given a mission that seems impossible or difficult and finding the way. And you learn that from, second lieutenant all the way And of course you didn't have to lean in on your people and it's often unfair to them and they have to put in way more hours than what they're really wanting to put you know, if you're a decent officer, you figure out a way to manage that and to develop personal relationships and to be right there with them. But these folks who are at the highest echelons were born in that environment. So the problem with the structure that we have is that when the civilian leadership comes and says, we want you to do this, the military's default answer is, gonna do it. Even if they don't really know if they can, here's the other problem that if they tell you, sir, we can't do this, they're gonna be replaced. And failure is not an the military. It's not an acceptable option that... is a failure of leadership. these incredibly capable generals, and they are, I'm telling you folks, I have worked with some brilliant people. I've been blessed. often say the secret to my success has been dumb luck and the people I got stuck with. you come up through the medical routes, you're accustomed working with a lot of really smart people, docs, they're all smart. There's no such thing as a dumb doc, there's such thing as a dense doc, there's such thing as a concrete doc, but there's no such thing as a truly dumb doctor. And because we're stuck in this world, we often end up. Feeling like you those of us in this field are the smartest And one of the best experiences in my life is working with non medical Generals who are just remarkable humans, absolutely brilliant in their ability to develop a mental model of something and then make it happen. remarkable. So these are very capable individuals. They have been sensitized to pleasing, doing the mission, following whatever order they're given. And that's unfortunately what leads us into places like Iraq, like Afghanistan. a book called Why We Lost. And it looked at Iraq and Afghanistan and really laid it at the and four stars the they didn't push of the things me in trouble, but one of the things I'm of in my command time was when I would push back and I would say, can't do it. And here's why, my limitations. So this is what I need from you in order to accomplish it. And it never was well received, but when it played out, it was accurate. I wouldn't tell them I couldn't do it if I could do it. And we're just not great at that. And I just implied that I am, but I'm not. I just so happen to also be contrary enough. I mean, I've got this podcast and clearly I've got contrary streak. David (27:43) Yeah, been Yes. Generals, every one I've ever in, I have not, I have not had a lot of FaceTime with generals throughout my career. but every last one that I ever met was a very impressive human being, man, woman. It didn't matter. They were, they were just obviously very their ability to, connect younger personnel was just, was political savvy, yeah, just off the charts. And that's what you have to get to get to that thing, and it's not about the generals, it's that audacity of the belief that in order for one person Rob (28:05) interpersonal. Yeah. David (28:19) for one person to save face, they would start a war as just being a thought process. is so the opposite of what we're used to. an authoritarian, person would not say, I'm going to start a war as a distraction from my own embarrassment. might start a war to consolidate power. They might start a war to take land, whatever, but they wouldn't start a war just to avoid some kind of embarrassment. And when you go back to 2013, 2012, it was definitely on his somebody start a save face. projection, a very simplistic viewpoint of the world. There's no downstream consequence considered in that. Rob (29:04) rejection. David (29:14) Like didn't occur to him that of course Obama wouldn't start a war just to save face. The potential for thousands and thousands of American lives, not to mention tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of other lives, are not something that somebody typically would think, you know what? These people aren't liking me so much. I think I'm going to start a war. And was something happen. It empathy. Rob (29:43) Empathy. So, one of the things that has struck me about so far is that we apparently bombed a school. And at least the Iranians say, and we'll see how this plays out, 100-ish children, little girls, killed by one of our bombs. And when you engage in a war, and I learned this firsthand, in Iraq, I certainly wasn't in a position to make big decisions, in my time in Iraq. I was in a position to see the suffering, to see the civilian death, to see the U S soldier, injury and death. And, nothing funny about this. I'm trying to make it funny. There's nothing funny about it. It's haunting. It's absolutely haunting. And the moral outrage that I personally experienced watching these things, thinking of these individuals who are sitting in very comfortable offices, in very comfortable positions, not really suffering, not experiencing any suffering, no hardship. make a have these ramifications that resonate out through generation after generation. think there was like 125, Iraq. That's in the context of something like, I don't know, 4,000, 5,000 US deaths. Now, did have like 30,000 really serious injuries. a little misleading when you just look at deaths. And having seen some of those injuries, they're horrendous. They were terrible. What I'm driving at here, folks, is that these are big fucking decisions. These are big ass decisions that humans. people, the loss of a mother, father, child, aunt, uncle, whatever, is what actually is happening, that when we drop a bomb, there are real people who are being disintegrated by said bomb. And there are real people who having their limbs removed from said bomb or being terribly injured by said bomb. And it is a little scary the person that triggered this, maybe lacks empathy, maybe, maybe doesn't have any. David (31:47) Or thinks that it's just a way to get out of some hot political water to attack somebody else to start a war. Rob (31:53) Well, we are in political season now, aren't we? David (31:57) cannot tell you that that is the reason why he did it. What I can tell you is that he definitely has had that thought enough in the past to suggest that somebody else could, would, or should have that response to some kind of political embarrassment. considering that the biggest political embarrassment of Obama's tenure was that he wore a tan suit to something tells me, tells me that having one of your cabinet members, appear aggressively in the Epstein files a couple of days before you attacked might be a little bit more embarrassing. Rob (32:22) Hahaha talk about the Iranians. from purely from a psychological standpoint. mean, right now I have a feeling they're all sitting in a bunker right now going, man, we fucked up. really miscalculated this one. But we see this over and over again, particularly in the Middle East. Now, maybe that's because the Middle East has an outweighed importance this is where the bombs get dropped. Who knows? But what the fuck were these guys thinking? David (33:01) What does the marshmallow think? I don't know. mean, I'm not sure. I don't know what they're thinking. I imagine that the people who are not a fan of the current administration are, maybe they're happy if they're not getting blown sitting in the school or had family members, were. Rob (33:16) You know, I keep thinking about, this justifying the leadership of Iran. I think the leadership of Iran has turned out to be, as is often the case in governments that don't have good guardrails, they're corrupt. And they have... enriched themselves on the backs of their people. And, you know, what's old saying that it starts as a movement, becomes a business, and then becomes a grift. And they definitely made it to the grift stage where, you know, all the things that they believed in, their Islamic values and all that, really it came down every one of the top leadership were ridiculously wealthy at the expense of their people. But when I think about how do we engage with these types of governments, removing their avenues for survival seems to be a bad choice and drifts into the hope zone. What we did through the course of events here this starts back when the Iranians, the average Joe was, I doubt there's too many Iranians named Joe. Maybe there are, I don't know. Joe's pretty common name. But when the average Iranians, Achmed, average. David (34:26) Whatever you say is going to sound racist. So just say that you're average citizen. Yeah, just maybe leave it as is. Here you go. Rob (34:28) I know, I know. The average citizen, thank you. Thank you for saving me there. was really running myself down into a cul-de-sac that I just reverse course. was stuck. But the average Iranian, rose up and they were like, hey, this 40 % inflation untenable. We cannot live this way. David (34:38) You were not, you were not having a good time. Rob (34:52) And when you start tweeting out, not tweeting, but truthing, when you start truthing out, God, that's so narcissistic. Everything that comes out on Truth Social is by definition, the truth. When you start truthing that, They need to overthrow the government that we're going to come support you. We're going to do this. We're going to do that. When policy is established at 3 a.m. on truth, social, this is the kind of shit you end up in. And, you know, I hope for the best. I really do. I would love to see the Iranian people have some fairness, just just fairness, just an opportunity. douchebags that have been profiting off the backs of the average Joe, the average Iranian. Yeah, I don't feel bad for them, but I think that's my point is that it's hard to root for these jackasses, these douchebags, but it's still not in keeping with the norms of history. David (35:50) so much more nuance that goes into country. I had the same concern between when people were upset or, still are to be honest, when people talk about Israel and Palestine, aren't football teams. It's not about wearing a jersey and being all in on one side or the other. There's so much gray area that exists between both sides that you can't just say one is all good and one is all bad, especially when we're talking about Iran, where a lot of their people are subjugated to these things. They're not the ones choosing it, but they are relatively powerless to change it. But when you go and you just bomb the bejesus out of their country, you're going to strengthen distaste of us just like anything else. may agree with the ideals, with the ideas, the bigger pictures, but once they affect you negatively on a personal level, all of a sudden you have very different thoughts and beliefs about it. You might be able to compartmentalize that off, but see this a lot here. You'll see people who are like, I can't stand or I can't understand trans people LGBTQ people, you'll say, what about your uncle? Well, he's different. You know, and it's just, it's so compartmentalized, but when it impacts you on a personal level, like it's one of your kids who just died in their school. Now all of a sudden you're a warrior against the thing that did that. Rob (37:31) Yeah. David (37:31) even if you would have been in favor of it. Because nobody's saying, you know, all three of my daughters died yesterday. But thank God those Americans are coming here to save us. Rob (37:40) God, that kind of hit close to the bone. David, thank you. ⁓ our tens of listeners, we really strive to be humorous and lighthearted. David's awful at it. Just terrible. Just fucking awful. anyway. Yes, and you know what I'm struck by is just how morbid David is. also struck by I don't think we were designed to think on this scale as humans. our formative environment, and I'm going to go out on the fringes here those who are creationists, I apologize, still like and share, please. But from a developmental really a small tribe universe. And most of biological brain mechanisms still live on a small tribe universe kind of level. And we're doing right now, in a small tribe, there's your people. and then there's everyone else. And your people matter, everyone else does not matter. Everything else does not matter. Your people matter. And not only do we see the current environments and social media's actually escalated this, triving up, we tribe up, we tribe up internally, we tribe up externally, but our ability to empathize the other because that tendency, impulse to tribe up that there's us and there's them and they are different and they don't deserve the same kind of... consideration. here we sit in a modern world in which there's so many mechanisms to tribe up. There's so many reasons. I mean, there's just so many tribes out there. How do you keep up with them that you can't empathize with everyone? It's too much for anyone to even ponder. And there's 100 little girls that died. that somebody was their daddy, somebody was their mommy. And we did this, we did it. I wanna believe there's purpose behind it. I wanna believe that. I'm having a hard time. I'm having a hard time believing that there was. David (39:47) Way to suck the funny out of our conversation, but hey, if we can have cathartic experiences while we're doing this, then why step away from it? I think it highlights, mean, as much as we want to try to be funny, funny in what we think is funny. Rob (39:51) hell No, David (40:01) reality is it can be really, really harsh, especially when it comes to, not considering long-term consequences and those of other people. And so, why I'd say, silly to compare the behavior to that of a small child. the question I have then is, it, it's a lack of empathy or is it, a lack of capacity for empathy. when your behavior consistently shows the lack of capacity for empathy, and you have control. And I guess that would be at no point would I so much as hand even my car keys to. one of my younger kids, much less the nuclear codes because they don't act in rational, long-term decision-making ways. so, it's concerning. I think we have covered this topic pretty thoroughly, Robbie. Do have any prescriptions? Rob (40:51) We have. is not a course of action. Hope is never a course of action. Courses of action have to be established as achievable and in keeping with the mission. And this whole thing smacks to me, of hope. That there's a hope that the people rise up, there's a hope that they take over or can take over, which the Iranian environment, I don't even know if that's possible. But is never a course of action your wagon to. David (41:22) going to go back last week's I think before you start a war, it needs to be a sandwich, a sippy cup and a nap. before deciding on war. Rob (41:37) I'm gonna add something. has to be a Quarter Pounder or a Big Mac because apparently that's the sandwich of choice. David (41:36) I'm just gonna, added. yes, fast food sandwich would be acceptable. A sippy cup or a soft drink, something. Rob (41:50) Diet Coke. David (41:51) A diet, Rob (41:51) Diet Coke. David (41:52) a diet beverage of some a nap would be excellent to any command to attack another country. I think that's about the week. thank you so much everybody for sticking around. We really appreciate all tens of our listeners and any other listeners you can think of, send them on over, hit like, subscribe, say nice things if you can. We'll take them all. So that's pretty much it. We're Kip That Music and we are out.